Fantasy basketball sleeper watch: Walker Kessler, Naz Reid, and more late-round targets (2024)

Rankings provide a reference point for fantasy nerds, but we nerds sometimes view rankings’ experts as god-like. We should be the only gods of our NBA squads — until the season is underway, when we must offer sacrifices to the injury deities.

There is no ultimate truth. Processes, risk tolerance, data reliance, and data hierarchy differ among platforms and experts, and subjectivity is involved. Have a vision for your team and execute that vision with roster construction in mind.

Don’t be afraid to select a player higher than his Average Draft Position (ADP). If he is the best fit for your team’s needs, don’t get cute. Yahoo doesn’t send cookies to those who only draft high-value players.

Along those lines, be careful selecting a player only because he “fell” in the draft. Remember that rankings are based on a player’s overall value. If a player who falls doesn’t fit your roster, it could do more harm than good, especially in category leagues. Punting (ignoring) a category is an integral strategy in fantasy basketball head-to-head category leagues (shoutout to Basketball Monster for the ability to filter rankings by specific stats). The goal is to complete the puzzle, not collect as many masterpieces as possible.

Thank you for indulging my rankings rant; let’s get to it. Here are the players ranked outside the Top 100 (according to Yahoo as of Oct. 7) who I predict will have an increase in value during the 2024-25 season.

Walker Kessler (C) — UTAH (107)

Kessler had a successful rookie season, starting 40 of 74 games and averaging 9.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting 72 percent from the field in 23 minutes per game. More playing time and a linear increase in his stats were on the horizon — until they weren’t. In drafts before the 2023-24 season, Kessler’s ADP was 50, but he only started 22 of 64 games last year, averaging 8.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. The pendulum has swung the other way this season, as he’s being drafted just outside the Top 100. With Utah voicing its commitment to developing young players, there’s a good chance his playing time will increase this season.

Naz Reid (PF/C) — MIN (110)

Naz Reid was “Illmatic” last season, winning the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award and averaging career highs of 24.2 minutes, 13.5 points, 2.1 treys, 5.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.9 blocks. Because Karl-Anthony Towns was swapped for Julius Randle, I predict Reid will play close to 30 minutes a game this season. He will back up Rudy Gobert and Randle, possibly taking some minutes from the latter due to Reid’s ability to space the floor.

Brandin Podziemski (SG) — GSW (114)

Podziemski started 28 of 74 games as a rookie, averaging 26.6 minutes, 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 treys. His free-throw percentage was bad at 63 percent, but he shot 38 percent from downtown. His IQ and vision garnered Steve Kerr’s trust. Golden State’s coach wants Podziemski to shoot more from downtown. I think the Warriors’ second-year guard starts alongside Stephen Curry and plays over 30 minutes per game. Even if he doesn’t start and comes off the bench, I still see his minutes reaching the upper 20s.

Zach Edey (C) — MEM (118)

I’m a believer in Edey. He can get buckets and is a massive human who isn’t a lumbering giant. You can’t teach some of the skills that he possesses. Most importantly, he will likely start and play a ton of minutes — and minutes are half the battle. Memphis can accentuate Edey’s strengths because of the team’s familiarity with this type of player. The Grizzlies offer Edey the perfect landing spot.

Josh Hart (SF/PF) — NYK (126)

With Julius Randle now in Minnesota and Karl-Anthony Towns manning the Knicks’ center position, Hart can fill an open spot in the starting lineup. The Knicks do not have a deep frontcourt, and Hart is an excellent rebounder, so he will likely see minutes in the low 30s.

Deni Avdija (SF/PF) — POR (134)

Avdija broke out last season, averaging 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.2 treys while shooting 50 percent from the field in 30.1 minutes per contest. He was traded to Portland and should have plenty of opportunities to produce fantasy goodies on a young Trail Blazers team without Shaedon Sharpe for more than a minute.

Donte DiVincenzo (SG/SF) — MIN (138)

DiVincenzo was chef’s kiss last season in New York, averaging 15.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 3.5 treys while shooting 40 percent from downtown. I had some concerns coming into this season about DiVincenzo’s playing time after the Knicks acquired Mikal Bridges, but those concerns have dissipated now that he’s in Minnesota. While DiVincenzo likely won’t start, he could get close to 30 minutes playing at point guard, shooting guard, and small forward, providing much-needed spacing on the perimeter.

Alex Sarr (PF) —WAS (163)

Maybe Sarr’s terrible 2024 Summer League performances affected his ranking, but the rookie will likely start at power forward for the Wizards and see a lot of minutes. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to rack up stats because the Wizards will play fast and don’t care about winning right now. In the first preseason game, Sarr looked good, guarding on the perimeter, scoring in the paint, and comfortably making it rain from downtown.

Alex Sarr now has 15 points on 6-8 FG and 3-4 3PT in his NBA preseason debut 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oJ5MO46cLb

— Chase Hughes (@chasedcsports) October 7, 2024

Patrick Williams (PF) — CHI (171)

Williams was selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft and has since garnered comparisons to Kawhi Leonard. The two have similar physical measurements, and how Williams pulls up and shoots is eerily similar to Leonard. But the Chicago forward hasn’t had nearly as much early career success as the 12-year veteran. Williams averaged 9.2 points his rookie season and put up 9, 10.2 and 10, respectively, in the next three seasons. Is Williams the first player to plateau immediately upon arrival to the NBA? Maybe, but I like the risk/reward entering this season. The cost is cheap, and there’s a chance he breaks out. He’s still only 22 years old, DeMar DeRozan is no longer in town, and Zach LaVine could be gone too if Chicago finds a suitor. Josh Giddey is now a member of the Bulls, and he’s intimated that Chicago will play fast this season. The team was 28th in offensive pace last season. Giddey isn’t a high-usage player but more of a facilitator, which could benefit Williams.

Obi Toppin (PF) — IND (187)

Toppin won’t start and will likely only see minutes in the low 20s, but the Pacers’ environment is good for fantasy. Indiana was second in offensive pace last season and should be among the leaders once again. Toppin shot 40 percent from downtown last season and could provide some points, treys, rebounds and steals.

Bilal Coulibaly (SG/SF) — WAS (190)

Coulibaly played only 63 games last season due to a wrist fracture. When on the court, he displayed his defensive chops and ability to hit the open J. He averaged 8.4 points, 1 trey, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks. He shot 34 percent from downtown but only 70 percent from the line. His usage rate was a paltry 13.7 percent, but there’s been talk of giving Coulibaly more on-ball responsibilities, and he showcased some nice moves in the Wizards’ preseason opener.

Bilal Coulibaly focused heavily on his ball-handling this offseason. These two pull-up jumpers early on tonight were smooth. Nice subtle move to create separation on the second one. pic.twitter.com/ug7i97UB5z

— Chase Hughes (@chasedcsports) October 7, 2024

Coulibaly was selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He’s 6-foot-8 and 195 pounds with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He is a critical component of the future and should continue to develop. Further, the Wizards have no pressure to win and will play at a high pace.

Stephon Castle (PG) — SAS (197)

Castle has already received rave reviews from his teammates and head coach Gregg Popovich. The rookie sees the floor exceptionally well and is not prone to rushing. Most rookies need time to adjust to the speed of the NBA, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Castle. His shooting is a concern, but his size and defensive acumen could get him on the court right away, especially since Devin Vassell will be out due to injury.

Josh Green (SG/SF) — CHA (205)

Green was traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the Charlotte Hornets. He is 6-foot-5, 200 pounds and very athletic. While he was primarily a spot-up shooter in Dallas, head coach Charles Green said Green has playmaking and ball-handling abilities. Green will likely start and get significant minutes. He may not be a high-usage player, but there’s a chance he’ll do more than shoot. Regardless, playing alongside LaMelo Ball should provide plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.

Derrick Jones Jr. (SF/PF) — LAC (207)

Nicknamed “Airplane Mode,” Derrick Jones Jr. was once seen as a mere novelty — a flea in a human’s body slamming orange balls into wood. Once a sub-30 percent shooter from downtown, Jones Jr. converted 34 percent of his attempts from downtown last season and uses his length and athleticism to lock down opposing ball handlers. Jones Jr. has never averaged more than 23 minutes a game, but he could get close to 30 minutes now that he’s with the Clippers, especially after signing a three-year, $30 million contract.

Miles McBride (PG/SG) — NYK (261)

With Donte DiVincenzo now in Minnesota, McBride is the microwave off the bench in Madison Square Garden. To begin his career, McBride was a sub-30 percent shooter from downtown. Last season, he drilled 41 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. He should see a significant increase from the 19.5 minutes per game he averaged last season.

Taylor Hendricks (SF/PF) — UTAH (305)

Hendricks started 23 of 40 games last season for Utah, averaging 7.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.3 treys in only 21.4 minutes. He started the first preseason game, supposedly gained 20 pounds in the offseason, and Utah’s prioritizing youth this season. A potential starter who can stuff the stat sheet with the last pick of a draft? Please and thank you.

Noah Clowney (SF/PF/C) — BKN (385)

Eric Wong and I have written about Clowney in the past, and we have been drafting him in the late rounds.

Donovan Clingan (C) — POR (520)

Portland still has Deandre Ayton on the roster, so Clingan likely won’t start. There’s a chance Ayton is traded at some point, but even if he isn’t, Clingan will likely play around 20 minutes a game. His ability to block shots automatically puts him on the fantasy radar. He’s also an excellent passer and can space the floor. How well? That remains to be seen.

Yves Missi (C) — NOP (583)

Missi is an athletic freak who is 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a 37-inch vertical jump. He’s already rocking rims in offseason practices and making an impression. Missi and Daniel Theis are the only centers on the New Orleans depth chart at the moment. While there is a lot of uncertainty with Missi’s situation, he makes for an interesting dart throw if you need a center in later rounds. If he doesn’t pan out, he’s an easy drop.

(Top photo of Naz Reid: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)